Advancing in poker requires analysis. There is a tool that will take your
task of analyzing the game to new heights. This is the concept of pot
equity. A thorough understanding of pot equity will expand your horizons.
All but the greenest of poker players understands the simpler concept of
pot odds. The basic poker strategies we have been taught advise us to play
tight pre-flop, count outs and determine pot odds, and bet and raise with
strong made hands, right? Sure, and playing that way at a full ring table
in low-limit weak/tight Holdem games makes money for one party only…the
poker room collecting the rake.
Pot equity differs from pot odds in the sense that pot equity usually
helps determine when you should bet while pot odds lets you decide whether
to call.
Pot Odds
Pot equity’s counterpart, pot odds, is easier to understand. The simplest
form of pot odds is expressed pot odds:
Q: You are holding A J in a heads-up pot, in a $5/10 limit Holdem game.
On the turn, the board is K T 4 2 . There was $35 in the pot. Your
opponent now bets into you, and it is $10 to call. Do you have sufficient
pot odds to call?
A: Even assuming the worst case (that your opponent has a pair with an ace
kicker, making your outs to the A no good), you have 9 outs to the flush
and 3 outs to the Broadway straight (don’t count the Q twice). You know 6
cards, and there are 46 unknown cards. Your odds to win are 46/12 = 3.83
to 1, so you can call the bet. The pot is offering (expressing) $45 to
$10, or 4.5-1 odds.
The Next Step: Pot Equity
Understanding the pot equity in various situations allows you to profit by
betting or raising in situations where you have a distinct advantage in
the hand, or can gain that advantage by not allowing other players to
continue.
A prime example of pot equity making your poker more profitable is when
you have a large number of outs in a drawing situation. Let’s set up a
situation where you have the worst hand on the flop best the highest pot
equity. You are holding Q J in the big blind. An early player raises, a
middle player re-raises, and you (questionably) call, only to have it
capped behind you. Three players see the flop of J T 9. You bet, and
it’s a raise and a 3-bet to you. Before you act, both opponents drop their
cards on the table, exposing A A and K K. You’re behind to two overpairs. What is your move? Answer: Cap it!
Experienced players are nodding, and newbies are shocked. Here’s the
scoop: with 9 known cards, take the remaining 43 cards and deal out the
turn and river in every possible way. There are (43*42)/2=903 possible
outcomes. You will win 55% of those 903 deals! The AA hand will win 35%,
and the KK hand will win 10%. This is because you have flush draws,
straight draws, 2 jacks, and running queens as outs.
Applying the known equities to the flop raise above relates the math
behind the raise. If I tell you your equity is 55%, you can look at your
options after the flop 3-bet. The pot (now) is 9.25BB, or $18.50 in a $1/2
game. Your 55% equity translates to $10.18, or about 5BB. It’s $2 if you
call, and $3 to raise. Here is the key: When using pot equity to analyze
an action, if your current equity is greater than or equal to the actual
current cost of that action, you can correctly take that action.
Notice that I take no consideration of the $5 you had previously invested
in the pot. That money is no longer yours; it’s the pot’s. The only choice
now is to fold ($0), call the 3-bet ($2), or cap it ($3). Also, the idea
of cold calling the 3-bet in order to disguise your hand (knowing that the
AA player will likely cap it) is a good one, but not considered here.
No Limit Pot Equity
While pot equity can be used to dissect LHE hands, it is more of a factor
in big-bet games (pot limit or no limit), and can even be used to make
quick in-game decisions. Consider the following situation: you are
heads-up against a player who is near all-in before the flop, with 900
total in the pot. The flop comes with three spades, perhaps T32. He
goes all in for 300 more. It’s 300 to you with 1200 in the pot. You are
holding TT, so you flopped top set, but the board is suited, so you may
be behind to a flopped flush. Should you call?
Even if your opponent flopped a made flush, you are only a 65.5-34.5
underdog (about 2-1). A quick pot equity calculation tells you that you
have 1200*34.5%= $414 equity in this pot, and it’s only $300 to call. The
fact that your opponent is all in and you have limited risk makes this an
easy call.
How to Apply Pot Equity
Evaluating pot equity during the course of a heated session is nearly
impossible, especially if you are multi-tabling online. Memorizing some of
the common situational equities (set vs. flush, overpair vs. overcards,
etc.) will help you make more snap decisions, but the real value of
calculating these numbers comes in post-play analysis. If you are playing
online, review your hand histories, especially ones where you felt
agonized over a decision. Use software such as Poker Stove to run the
possibilities and further scrutinize your play. If you think about the
decisions while away from the table, the decisions will come easier at the
table.
Future articles on pot equity will discuss folding equity, raising to
increase equity, and backdoor draw equity.
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