I'm going to answer this before I read the others' replies. This is an all-in or fold, IMO. The pot is 6500 (no antes?), so it's 4000 for you to call a 6500 pot, so 13-8 or about 1.6-1. If you push, the pot is 30500, and he has to call 19000 for that, or 1.6-1.
First consideration is the likelihood he's just stealing. He's on the button and it's folded to him. His raise (5x BB) is too big for a value raise. I put the chances that he's stealing very high, maybe 40%?!?
Second consideration is his starting hand range. From Poker Stove, if his range is any two broadway cards or any pair, you are a 3-2 favorite. If his range is 66+, AJo+, ATs+, you are 54-46 favorite. If he's WAY tight and would play only TT+, AKo, AQs, or AKs, you are only a 54-46 dog. Considering the strong possibility that he is on a steal and the too-big bet, I like your chances. Push all-in.
(That said, I'm guessing he had a pair and you didn't improve, or he had AT and spiked a ten on the turn.) |