IvanD, it would appear this hand is in a limit game, although it's not explicitly stated. This would mean, of course, that the size of the possible bets is pre-determined.
As for how to play it, one factor that would seem to require strong consideration is the playing style of the opponent. Most important, is he the kind who's likely to call a bet at the end with a hand that's less than top pair top kicker?
Assuming no read in this regard, if you check, you win or lose $285 depending whether your hand is better than his. If you bet and he folds, you win the same $285 you would have won by checking (neglecting the fairly small chance that betting will cause him to fold with a better hand than yours). Among possible hands, this covers the opponent having a busted straight and/or flush draw, and some opponents will have gotten this far with a weaker A and will fold if you bet once more.
If you bet and get called, you win or lose one additional big bet. Some opponents will call one more bet with a weaker A. But if it's a good kicker like AQ or AJ, limping pre-flop and then not raising after the flop to see where he stands is a possible combination of actions, but not necessarily all that likely. The other hand that might call is two pair; i.e. the opponent hit his A and his kicker. If so, you obviously lose at showdown.
If you bet and get check-raised, you can win or lose two additional big bets. Is there a hand you beat that will check-raise in this situation? Possibly, but the likelihood seems pretty low, so I'd assume that in this situation, you'll lose almost all the time - most likely to either a set or the aforementioned two pair.
When I bring the three possibilities together and weight them in terms of probability, it looks like I have more to lose than to gain by betting. So I check.  |