 Suited Cards
I intend to post some discussion topics and would like to start with this one.
First of all let me say I have been gambling on all forms of card game,even some games that most of you will never even have heard off, and also other different game types, for a long time.
I am NOT talking about suited connectors just any old suited cards. Over the last couple of weeks I have seen a lot of players fall victim,myself included, to suited cards. And not because they have made the flush either.
Lets say its early in a tourney, full table,blinds 50/100 stacks 1200-2000.
1st and 2nd fold, 3rd calls 100, 4,5,& 6 fold,7th raises to 450, 8,SB and BB fold, 3rd calls the 350 raise. pot now 1050. The 3rd player holds K4 Hearts. I want to discuss the 3rd players logic in calling the bet with K4 Hearts.( Lets ignore position raises, bluffs, steals etc.)
In a deck of cards there are 13 hearts, there are also 16 premium cards (A-J). If we base assumptions on the average it seems that, when the hole cards are dealt, 25% of the hearts and premium cards will go out. Would it be reasonable to assume that an Ace would be dealt out. The pot was raised so lets say yes. So K4 has, at best, the remote possiblity of an overcard.
There are now only 8 hearts left in the deck out of 32 cards. When the flop and turn are dealt there is a 25% chance of one heart being dealt.
Obviously he needs to catch three for his flush which is, on that basis, a very low probability. Even if he does catch the flush then it may not even be the nut flush.
He has 6 cards to make 2 pair or better which is less than 20% of the available cards. But should he pair his 4 or K his flush chances diminish, and we believe that there is an Ax out there so even his pair kings may be second best.
So we have 14 outs, just under 50% of the deck so he should catch 2 of them. It seems that the flush is a non starter and his 2 pair has less than a 20% chance and all for just better than 2 to 1 pot odds.
Should the call have been made?...Or am I missing something?????  |