Thread: Specific Hand
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Old 08-21-05, 03:15 PM
Arjonius Arjonius is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2005
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Did you think the other player was better than you heads up? What did you think the probability was that the opponent had a pair, which would have meant he was ahead after he pushed all in?

If you're the better heads-up player, you can fold and you haven't seriously decreased your probability of winning; you'd be behind about 2:1 instead of 3:2. No big deal - let's say that because you're better, your chance of winning from 2:1 behind is 50%.

If you call and the opponent has any pair, you're pretty likely to lose the hand, which means losing the tourney. If you call and opponent has no pair, you're a reasonable favorite to win the hand. With a 4:1 chip lead, you'll probably win the tourney too, but it's not certain - let's say 90%. Overall, what this means is that you need the opponent to have no pair about 60% of the time. Otherwise, you're better off to fold and take your 50% chance with the 2:1 deficit. Of course, if you think your chances are better than 50-50 in such a situation, then it you need an even higher assumed probability of no pair in order to make calling mathematically preferable.

On the other hand, if you feel you're the inferior heads-up player, then you need to take more chances in order to win. You want to play big pots even if you're a slight dog. It may not have been your intention, but you played it the same way I would if I thought the other person was better.
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