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Old 08-24-05, 08:30 PM
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nxtyear nxtyear is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: UK
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loads and loads of time obviously
it happens, and i know that itfeels worse when it happens in an important situation.
But rememeer that everytime you are all in, you are putting yourself on the risk of getting out no matter what your holding (unless you are holding absolute nuts which cannot be beaten by any runner runner cards, that is, if u went all in after the flop)
AAvKK is what, 82% favourit i think? 4.5 to 1 (if u use this sytem, but i prefer percentage... only americans use x to y )
well anyways there will always be that other 18% which could happen

think of it this way.
you are short stacked in a game, you get AA so you go all in, opponent held KK, you win the race and double up.
you are still shortstacked, the very next hand you get AA again, and this time QQ called you,, and you win again. so you double up once again.

say now you got 8000 in chips and the table average is still 18000, meaning you are yet still shortstacked (lets say you lost a massive pot so u got really shortstacked to start with.).

well anyways you have 8000 so ur still shortstack so you gotta double up once more to actually play normally with an avearage chipstack. the very next hand you get Aces AGAIN!
so the big stack raises and you elegantly raise all in, hey, ur holding aces, you are bound to win right?, big blind calls, pocket 2's.
still 82%, but this time Ace comes out, along with a 2, so you both make a set, but the other person gets a runnner runner flush and wins.
badd beat right? you deserve to stay in the tournament.

but think back all the way to the start and think how many times you put urself in risk of going out of the tournament, 3 times all the time with aces.
that means if you wanan stay alive you have to win all three of the times with your aces. the probability of this is:
0.82 x 0.82 x 0.82 =.... 55% approximately, which means that you are only a slight favourite to be still alive in the game.
throughout the tournament, everytime you go all in there is always a way of going bust, go all in too many times (though you have no choice), and ur chances of going bust increases alot more.

so AA getting cracked by JJ like it happend to you, sure it can happen. and it may seem like a bad beat, but think of the whole tournament itself, it could always happen no matter what hand ur holding
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