I don't like this. You've essentially established rules for when your opponent bluffs. You said that these are some ideas, but you need to give more than one angle to each one. These scenarios can in fact be true, but cannot be taken as absolute.
A. If the flop is 4-5-5 (assuming rainbow since you didn't specify), it depends what you are holding (which you didn't say). Just because it's a rag-cards flop doesn't mean that your opponent doesn't have you. And if in fact they do have just ace-high, betting back at them with that flop probably won't make them reconsider the value of their hand. And personally, I don't agree with betting knowing that you're down and most likely in need of one of a potential 6 cards to hit. Just tell us what you're holding and it makes this deeper. Not knowing what we hold kind of makes this impossible to dissect.
B. The Turn doesn't make people get out if they're chasing draws and it's a huge pot. True, it may cause a few to get out of the hand.
C. Agreed, use your player notes and hand history to evaluate their play.
D. That's a little too broad. You have to know the player, so I guess you're right with that part. Just because there are no draws doesn't mean anything. Not all hands are based on looking to hit a draw. Now if it was protecting against a draw, that's different. But protecting against a rainbow, non-connecting flop is weird. It depends on the numerical value of the cards on the board as to what your opponent has.
E. Ok, they bet and you call. They have a set and hope you have top pair. They check you the turn in hopes of getting a bet out of you. If you bet and they simply call, then check the river, what do you think they have? Slowplaying and bluffing may look the same at times, but establishing a flop bet and a turn check as a bluff is a little foolish.
F. Basically just read my evaluation of your "E".
G. Go watch the WSOP Main Event, Andrew Black and Aaron Kanter. Black flops a set and tells Kanter that he(Black) has the best hand. That's basically saying, "Save your money, I own you." Yet, Black had a set against Kanter's top pair. Kanter made the fold, so I guess he never bought into the theory of talk means bluff. I do take interest in what, I believe it was Mike Caro said, in that "A genuine smile means a genuine hand." Talk can be sincere in order to make you think.  |