>> I'm usually getting unlucky to a much greater extent than I'm getting lucky.
Hmmm... there's a concept in psychology about this perception, I'm no expert but I remember the analogy I learned:
People tend to think that they hit a greater portion of red lights when driving than they actually do. When surveyed about the % of the time that they run into red lights, they always err to the upside. And folks will often complain about running into "all the red lights" while driving somewhere.
Why?
Simple: we notice red lights more. Red lights make us slow down, stop, wait, and then speed up again. Green lights make us do nothing, we just keep going, so they register less in our brains. The person who hits all the reds may have actually driven through several greens and not noticed, whereas you can't not notice a red.
Similarly, you're always going to notice bad luck more than good. Maybe you had a pair of aces after the flop, you're all in, and an ace drops on the turn and you win, with your opponent never showing his hand. Well maybe your opponent had trip 5's on the flop, and you were actually losing at that point without knowing it.
I'm just saying, we're wired to notice bad luck more than good luck, I don't really know if over a long stretch of time it's reasonable to think we could have more bad luck than good.
Of course, it might be possible to have more bad beats against you than for you over time, if you just play optimally and only bet big when you have the nuts (cause you'll never need a bad beat to win)...!
Just some thoughts.  |