This is an article Dutch Boyd wrote about these situations it makes total sense to me and hopefully it does to you as well, there is much to learn from just this small piece of writing.
" Best thing I can tell you is to pick your spots and be aggressive. The idea behind NL tournaments is not to show your hand unless you're sure it's good. Think about this... let's say you are short-stacked. If you get pocket aces against, say pocket Jacks, you're 4.5:1 to win... or about 82%. So you get your money in and go all-in, get called, and are hoping to double up. You do. Very next hand, you get aces again. You push all-in and get called by QQs... again, 82%. You win and double up again. But you're still just an average stack. Next hand you get them AGAIN! You push all-in and get called by a big stack with pocket 22s. Still 82%, but this time you lose. Ouch. Bad-beat, righ? Sure, sure...
But the funny thing is, it's not a bad beat at all. You see, you are basically betting a parlay. You must win the first + second + third. Figuring out the chances of winning all of them is done by multiplying all of the percentages together (82% x 82% x 82%)... it comes up to roughly 55%. So you are only a slight favorite to still be in the tournament after being all-in three times with the best hand in the game.
So how is it that people like Stu Unger, Johnny Chan and Doyle Brunson could win the biggest event more than once? They must have gotten lucky... actually, they just rarely put themselves in a position where they were all-in. This year, before my hand with Moneymaker, I was only all-in one time during the whole tournament. Moneymaker was only all-in one time... against me. In order to win tourneys, you have to keep from going all-in.
The best way to do that is to steal. Consider these ideas:
- AK v. 72o is only about a 6:4 favorite
- If you're on the button and everyone folded to you, the chance of one of the blinds having a pocket pair is only about 1/8
- The chances of QQ flopping a set or overpair is about 66%
- The chances of JJ flopping a set or overpair is about 50%
- The chances of TT flopping a set or overpair is only about 33%
- The chances of any pair flopping a set is about 13%
- The chances of any non-pair holding flopping a pair is 33%
What this means is that if you raise with 72o, you're only going to win the pot if it goes to showdown 40% of the time. But if the calling player will check and fold to a bet on the flop if he doesn't improve, the value of that 72o is a lot more than 40% of the pot. There are many times in tournaments where you don't have to even look at your hand... a raise is correct. There were several times in the WSOP that I didn't look.
If you combine those basic maths with your ability to read your opponents (whether a preflop raiser or the blinds will call a reraise and whether they improved on the flop), you'll do well.
There is pretty much a correct formula for how much to raise. Before the flop, if you're the first one in, it should be either 3 or 4 x the blind. If there are limpers, it should be whatever you would raise if you were first in + the pot. If there is a raiser, it should be about 3x his raise. Early in the tournament, you can increase these amounts since players are much more likely to call. Later in the tournament, you can decrease these amounts since players are less likely to call. But remember that if there are antes, there is a lot more at stake and it's better to win the pot right there instead of seeing a flop.
Hope that helps you on your way."  |