 Big No No
Flush draws and straight draws are scary when you have a big pair but you also need to know what the odds are of it hitting.
lets say you have QcQs and only one other person is in the hand. He called your 4x bet preflop and is in the hand with you. The flop comes down 10h 9h 8s. There is now a flush and a straight draw on the board that beats your Q and one of your outs for a set is dead if the Qh falls completing the flush but giving you a very powerful set that is hard to get away from. You need to know a little about your opponent in this spot.
First is he the type that will call you large bet preflop with any two cards? This is only known if you pay attention to his game and have a good read ( I will constantly preach that paying attention to the game is the most vital thing you can do) If he is a super tight type of player he is not going to be in the hand after your raise with the straight cards he would need for this, QJ. It is not a hand a tight player would just call with preflop into a bet.
Second, has he been calling lots of bets to see more cards and if so what has been the size of bet he folds to. This real important because Tight aggressive players will fold only to bets that put them out of the range of odds they need but a loose player will call almost anything if he has a draw and thinks he can win.
Third what to you stand to gain? Moving all in here is only going to win you money if you get a caller and even worse lose you all your money if you ran into a bigger preflop hand or some one hit 2 pair or a set.
Now that you know your opponent do you know what you should do. Well a straight draw is more than likely open ended so that is 8 outs. For him to be open ended with the hand he would need a jack in his hands so that gives you AJ and KJ, calling a big preflop with either of these hands is suicidal at best KJ is simply to weak to call with and AJ is easily dominated by AK/Q so know you player will tell you. Loose there is a chance, tight there isn't. if it is however either of these hands it makes you a bigger favorite than you think. they have 8 outs or about a 32% shot at making it but 2 of there outs are in your hand! so they only have an 24% or 3-1 one dog shot at making the straight here, more importantly if they pair their under card the J YOU MAKE A STRAIGHT! So all in is not really going to get you anything but a fold but a good value bet might make you more chips. YOU FIRE OUT A BET ABOUT HALF THE POT AND HOPE HE CALLS OR RERAISES HERE. You make more money and you are still the favorite.
The flush draw is a killer too. They have 9 outs for the flush and since they called your reraise they could be holding AK or AQ of the suit. Ah Qh is not so bad because once again a tight player will fold this preflop but a average to loose player will call. AQ also has an over card though the ACE has 3 outs with the 9 flush that can beat you making it about a coin flip at this point. AK is a BIG likely hood here and worse it also gives them 2 over cards to you. 9 outs for the flush and 6 outs for the overs to beat you... guess what 15 outs makes them a 60% favorite in the hand and it is a big likely hood they are on a hand like that if they just called. You need to price them out by betting big but not all in. ALL-IN here is going to get you killed if the player knows half of anything about poker because all they need is 2-1 on their money to call.
The bet I would make here is about 2/3rds the pot size for value, this also gives you a chance to fold if one of the 15 cards comes out.
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03-12-06, 05:25 PM
It's a good thing I wasn't taking a drink of my soda when I read that.
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