[spresso81]

How would YOU play this AA hand?

Here's the situation. Please read before voting...
You are dealt pocket aces in late position at a full ring cash game ($100 no-limit table). About 6 limpers in the pot when it gets to you. You raise a nominal $10 to keep a couple people in and not scare everyone away. (Yes, I know some of you would raise more than this, but this table isn't that loose.)

You get 3 callers. Flop comes Ks and 2 suited rags (clubs). Everyone checks to you, you bet the size of the pot ($50) to get rid of any flush draws. One guy then check raises you and goes all-in, everyone else now folds. The guy who goes all-in has $900 in front of him. You have $600 in front of you. Does he have a set? Two pair? Flush draw and he's a bad player who's an idiot to risk $600 on a flush draw? You don't know. Your read is that you still have him beat with your Aces. You talk to him, ask him to show you one card. Incredibly, he does(!) and shows you the 4c. You now know he does not have a set OR two pair. Your read says he now only has paired the King, but does have 2 clubs for the flush draw as well.

Here's where it gets tricky. You've watched him play for hours. He's not a really good player, but has been lucky. You count his outs. He has 14 outs: 9 clubs for a flush, the 2 remaining Kings to catch trips, or the 3 remaining Fours to catch 2 pair. Roughly a 56% chance to beat you. You are ahead, but he is now a favorite to win the hand. (And, neither of your Aces is the club, so you cannot catch runner runner for a flush.)

Do you call his all-in for your entire stack when he's at 56% to win the hand? Or do you lay down your Aces and let it go? After all, you've only invested $60 into the pot at this point. What would you do?

[hayden1009]

once he showed you the small club I think I would have taken the chance and called...your info states he not good but lucky....and yes luck is part of the game....however he might have a king or another club. but at this point I think you have him beat but my guess is he has a king and not the flush draw ...he showed you that thinking he was being crafty into letting you think he was chasing a flush draw when in fact he had a king and was playing a game of allin to steal the pot....

[956Vette]

I think you knew that the answer was that you should probably just lay it down

[Texas72]

Am I reading this wrong? Here's the math break down as I see it, assuming red aces and one red king...the Aces are still way ahead.


pokenum Ad Ah - Kh 4c -- Ks 3c 8c

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ks 8c 3c

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Ah 772 77.98 218 22.02 0 0.00 0.780
4c Kh 218 22.02 772 77.98 0 0.00 0.220

[track1697]

Originally Posted by Texas72

Am I reading this wrong? Here's the math break down as I see it, assuming red aces and one red king...the Aces are still way ahead.


pokenum Ad Ah - Kh 4c -- Ks 3c 8c

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ks 8c 3c

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Ah 772 77.98 218 22.02 0 0.00 0.780
4c Kh 218 22.02 772 77.98 0 0.00 0.220

I think Spesso is assuming that he has the king of clubs not the king of hearts. This guy couldn't be bad enough to push all in with just top pair and crappy kicker or at least thats what he is thinking. Which then gives him the flush draw and would give the other guy a lot more outs.

[Texas72]

Even if you assume it's Kc, Aces are still the favorite, although by much less of a margin -

pokenum Ad Ah - Kc 4c -- Ks 3c 8c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ks 8c 3c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Ah 497 50.20 493 49.80 0 0.00 0.502
Kc 4c 493 49.80 497 50.20 0 0.00 0.498


Coinflips are never fun, but you would still be getting your money in with the best of it.

[sensei24]

I think i will get my chances and call.
The poker is still a game of luck.
And you sometimes have to take risks in order to win.

[ScottMc]

you need to quit. This is a no brainer and YES you call here knowing you are ahead. If you can't get the money in when you are a 100% without a doubt favorite than take up another game. If numbnuts is stupid enough to show you a card here you take the info and run with it. If he hits a card to win it then s be it, you were not beaten by the player you were beating by bad luck.

[sambkk]

That was interesting.
I would have called most likely, alltough my last week of playing was full of these type of situations, pokect king,aces queens... and each time I got my stack robbed.

But thyats the game isnt it.

I had a rough night out last night, and my head is still ringing.
In consequence I got lost looking at the odds explained here.

thats my weakness, I still dont effectively know how to count the odds, or to decide which hand is a favourtie and by how much when its a close call.
Does anyone have any links to tutorials? (on determining which hand is the favourite)

I am trying to get better at it and would llike to read new material on it.
I have used some programs while playing, but found that I play worse when I use them.I also found that few of them make mistakes as well.
I think tomorrow, once fully recovered my brain has enough computing pover again

I know I need to get out of the game asap unless I can properly master counting the odds quickly.

Would any of you lend a hand by posting a link or 2?

Sami

[Kylebikinas13]

I'm a more cautious player in scenarios like that which you presented. In my opinion, you should lay it down, no question. You have the upper hand, but a single card could rob you of all your money. Of course, on the other hand if your aces held it would have a very good payout. But would you risk your $600 on those hopes? Not going by statistics here anymore, a decision like that is pretty important, and gut instincts aren't always the right ones. Just to be safe, I would lay down the hand, as difficult as it would be. So you've thrown away $60 in that hand, you'll make it back.