[darock]

Alright, this was definetely my worst bad beat ever!! Sure it was only a freeroll, sure it was only for $25, but it was the final table and I was playing some of the best poker of my life. And it was personal, my friends were watching and a couuple were at the table. Plus a couple of guys were hatin on me cuz I wasn't playing many hands, I had a decent amount of chips around maybe 6400 and chip leader had 13000, there were 8 ppl left and top 5 get the bigger prizes than 6-15. It was on Noble Poker. Well first let me tell you that I got pocket aces 3 times, the last time was disgraceful. So these guys that keep making fun of me for staying outta hands raises to 4000, I get excited and push it all in, everyone's cheering me on, so here's what we show: (oh and he had 8100 chips left)

me-
him-

Flop comes out-
Turn- (now my friends are ecstatic but I knoew what's looming)
River- you guessed it,

This hurt so badly cuz everyone was watching and this guy was being a major (insert word here)...

All I could do was watch the rest of the game and curse as much as the server would let me. While he had a roaring good time yelling "ACES CRACKED ACES CRACKED!"

How many times have your aces cracked?

[Texas72]

Too many to count! It sucks, but it happens. Most notable one was when I playing in a private tourney at the Aladdin with some friends. I was short-stacked, it was raised to put me all-in, but hey - I had Aces - no problem calling! He had Kings, we both flopped a set, but my Aces were red, his Kings were black....and he runner-runner'd the flush.

[nxtyear]

loads and loads of time obviously
it happens, and i know that itfeels worse when it happens in an important situation.
But rememeer that everytime you are all in, you are putting yourself on the risk of getting out no matter what your holding (unless you are holding absolute nuts which cannot be beaten by any runner runner cards, that is, if u went all in after the flop)
AAvKK is what, 82% favourit i think? 4.5 to 1 (if u use this sytem, but i prefer percentage... only americans use x to y )
well anyways there will always be that other 18% which could happen

think of it this way.
you are short stacked in a game, you get AA so you go all in, opponent held KK, you win the race and double up.
you are still shortstacked, the very next hand you get AA again, and this time QQ called you,, and you win again. so you double up once again.

say now you got 8000 in chips and the table average is still 18000, meaning you are yet still shortstacked (lets say you lost a massive pot so u got really shortstacked to start with.).

well anyways you have 8000 so ur still shortstack so you gotta double up once more to actually play normally with an avearage chipstack. the very next hand you get Aces AGAIN!
so the big stack raises and you elegantly raise all in, hey, ur holding aces, you are bound to win right?, big blind calls, pocket 2's.
still 82%, but this time Ace comes out, along with a 2, so you both make a set, but the other person gets a runnner runner flush and wins.
badd beat right? you deserve to stay in the tournament.

but think back all the way to the start and think how many times you put urself in risk of going out of the tournament, 3 times all the time with aces.
that means if you wanan stay alive you have to win all three of the times with your aces. the probability of this is:
0.82 x 0.82 x 0.82 =.... 55% approximately, which means that you are only a slight favourite to be still alive in the game.
throughout the tournament, everytime you go all in there is always a way of going bust, go all in too many times (though you have no choice), and ur chances of going bust increases alot more.

so AA getting cracked by JJ like it happend to you, sure it can happen. and it may seem like a bad beat, but think of the whole tournament itself, it could always happen no matter what hand ur holding

[BBP Guru]

nxtyear, nice one. I read about that probability scenario a day ago. Was waiting it to show up again

[darock]

nxtyaer, you may have just saved me from being banned on the poker sites that AA beats me with in a tournament, lol!! That is exactly what happened, I had AA 3 times that tourney like I said which got me to the final table. I actually had never gotten pocket aces on Noble but yeah the first 2 times, one guy was holding A-10 and I took down that pot. The next time it was 2 people, 8-8 and k-q suited, and I held off on that one. But the third time (the fourth person against my pocket aces) was as you said a 45% favourite to win I guess. So basically a coin toss and I was bound to lose sooner or later.

What about this hand.

Me-
him-

I know that Jacks here are favoured to win, but how much percent are they sure to win? I really think the K-Q is favoured here, but I was heads-up against some guy and pushed with this hand and ended up winning because he hit nothing. But more times than not I figure a K or Q has surely got to come out, or a flush? What do you guys think in this situation is the better hand?

[BBP Guru]

With 2 overcards, its almost a coin flip. You being just a little better than your opponent.

[nxtyear]

yeah like Guru said it's a coin flip with slight advantage on yourside

so it's like 53% yeah, but he's cards are suited so it might add half or a full percentage to his side or something like that,
suited cards make your chances a little better
but his straight possibilities dimish cuz you hold two if his jacks (and he needs one jack atleast to make a straight) so in the end i think the flush possibility and the lack of straight posibility cancel each other out.
not a mathematician so i can't say much

don't put urself in that situation at the end of the line though. no need to raise all in when you could just raised decent amount

[Catcherblck]

Way to many times .... try all the different ways to play em,, just everythin' doesn't work. slow play aggresive. limp in, nothin' works.
Im just goin' to fold em.

[darock]

Yeah, I've heard a lot of people say that before, like they lose so many times with pocket aces that they would fold pocket aces nxt time they see them. Let's be reasonable, would anyone really really fold pocket aces?

Oh and on the JJ vs K-Q theory, I played out the exact situation with a deck of cards 10 times and 6 times, K-Q won and the other 4 were the J-J. So yeah, pretty much even...

[Arjonius]

It's a simple fact of poker life that aces are going to get cracked once in a while. Obviously, it feels worse when it happens late in a tournament, especially when it knocks you right out.

On the other hand, the longer you play, the more times you'll crack someone else's aces too. And eventually, it will happen at a final table, and the situation will be reversed.