[Slayre]

I lost a lil sleep over this last night... ergh..

Want to add, that people like Phil Ivey, can say they would call, because, they have much more to gain than they have to lose. The $10k buy in for the WSOP main event is a drop in the bucket for Phil Ivey. He is more interested in the Bracelet than he is in the money. He plays the big cash games regularly.

Remember last year, he was betting $10K on just one golf shot.

Me, in that situation, I would have more to lose than I would to gain, at that point. So, it isn't really that hard to lay down.

AA is not an automatic win.. there is another post here.. about getting AA 3 times in a row, and going all in each time, and your odds of winning the third time, ie, beating 3 random hands, are lower than they were the first and second times..

This situation describes you going all in with AA 4 times, cuz, that is basically what you are doing...

You have to put your opponents on a hand... for my example, the $20 SNG, it is not hard to do this..

We are in the first hand, and we know nothing about these players.. the level buyin is medium to high, so let us give them the benefit of the doubt, and assume they know what they are doing. The first all in is Player 1, we are player 5.

Player 1, could have anything, he is a wildcard
Player 2, definately has a hand, prolly anything from TT up..
Player 3, Should have QQ, AKs, KK, or AA.. he has two all ins before him
Player 4, Same as 3, but more likely, KK, or AA..
Player 5, us, we have AA

We have no choice other than calling or folding... we have zero information except that player 3 and 4 have monster hands...

we know we are down at least 1 out to improve to a set...possibly down 2 outs... which means, we want to have noone else improve, because if they do, we lose.....

Our best case scenario is such:
Player 1, KK
Player 2, KK
Player 3, QQ
Player 4, QQ

or, two with Q's, two with J's: J's and 10's; etc.. etc...

more than likely, it looks like this:

Player 1, TT
Player 2, KQ
Player 3, KK
Player 4, AK or AA

but, we really don't know, and we(ME) do not want to pay the price to find out, I haven't lost anything but 10 Tchips to the big blind.. I am still in durn good shape, and will most likely have 3 less people to worry about.

The odds vs the pot, altho pretty, don't look good to me, and I make the most profitable decision, at this point of the match, I can think of. I fold. It doesn't mattre what happens after I fold. I am done with the hand..

Now in a freeroll.... that is a story of a different color..